Prop firm ROI & risk-of-ruin calculator
Is this challenge worth the fee? Chains every phase into your real chance of a payout, then turns it into expected ROI.
How many evaluations you clear before the account is funded.
Enter your numbers and press Calculate.
- Pass phase 1
- --%
- Pass phase 2
- --%
- Reach first payout (funded)
- --%
- Trades to first payout
- --
How this calculator works
Most challenge “calculators” just show you the profit target. This one answers the question that actually decides whether you should buy: given your edge, what are the odds you ever see a payout, and is the fee worth it? It does that by simulating every phase and chaining the results, then putting a dollar value on the outcome.
Each phase is simulated, not guessed
The same Monte Carlo that powers the pass probability calculator runs 5,000 accounts through phase one, respecting your drawdown, daily loss, and time limit. Then it does it again for phase two, and again for the funded account you are trying to reach a payout on.
The phases are chained
To get paid you must clear every step in a row. A 90% chance at phase one and a 90% chance at phase two is not a 90% chance overall, it is 0.9 × 0.9 = 81%. Reaching a payout on the funded account multiplies in the same way. This compounding is why 2-step challenges are so much harder than they look.
The money layer sits on top
Once the model knows your true chance of a payout, it weighs the cash you would collect (your first withdrawal times your profit split, plus your fee back if the firm refunds it) against the fee you pay up front. That gives the expected return and the ROI on the money you actually risk.
How to use this calculator
Pick 1-step or 2-step
A 1-step challenge has one evaluation; a 2-step adds a verification phase you must also pass. The phase two inputs appear only when you need them.
Enter the challenge rules
Account size, each phase’s profit target, the max drawdown, and whether it trails. These are the same rules the pass probability calculator uses, applied to every phase.
Enter the payout terms
The fee you pay, how much profit you need on the funded account before the first withdrawal, your profit split, and whether the fee is refunded. This is what turns odds into dollars.
Enter your edge
Your real win rate, average win and loss in R, risk per trade, and how often you trade. Use your records. Optimistic inputs produce an optimistic ROI, and the whole point of this tool is honesty.
Press Calculate ROI
It simulates every phase and returns your ROI, your chance of ever seeing a payout, and the phase-by-phase breakdown so you can see where the odds leak away.
Understanding your results
- Expected ROI on your fee
- The headline. Positive means that, across many attempts, the fee buys you more than it costs in expected payouts. Negative means the challenge is a losing bet at your current edge, and it turns red so there is no mistaking it.
- Chance of a payout
- Your probability of clearing every phase and reaching a first withdrawal on the funded account. This is the number most traders overestimate, because they think about one phase at a time.
- Risk of ruin
- The flip side: the chance you spend the fee and never see a payout at all. Not the classic “blow the whole account” definition, but the one that matters when you are deciding whether to buy a challenge.
- Phase breakdown
- Your odds at each individual step. Watching an 80% phase-one figure and an 80% phase-two figure collapse into a 64% combined chance is the clearest lesson this calculator teaches.
A worked example
Say a 2-step $50,000 challenge costs $150, with an 8% target in phase one, a 5% target in phase two, an 8% trailing drawdown, a 90% profit split, and a $150 fee refunded on the first payout. You reckon you reach a 5% payout on the funded account before breaching.
Suppose the simulation gives you an 80% chance at each step. Individually that feels safe. Chained, it is 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.8 = 51% — barely a coin flip to ever get paid. If you do get paid, you collect 5% of $50,000 at a 90% split, which is $2,250, plus your $150 back. The expected return is 0.51 × $2,400 ≈ $1,224 against a $150 fee, so the ROI is strongly positive even though almost half of all attempts lose the fee.
Change the win rate down a few points and watch the chained probability, and the ROI, fall off a cliff. That sensitivity is the real lesson: at a thin edge, the fee is a bad bet even when a single phase looks winnable.
Where this calculator stops
It models the first payout only, so it answers “will I ever get paid, and is the fee worth it?” rather than your lifetime earnings on a funded account. It assumes your edge is the same in every phase and that trades are independent, which real trading is not: streaks, changing conditions, and tighter funded-account rules all matter.
It uses the rules and payout terms you enter, so a wrong split or an unmodelled consistency rule will move the answer. The drawdown type is the biggest lever of the lot: a trailing floor that locks at breakeven and one that trails forever are very different bets, and most futures firms lock. Pick the one your firm actually uses.
Treat the ROI as a decision aid for whether a challenge is worth buying, not a promise of profit.
Frequently asked questions
What is risk of ruin for a prop firm challenge?
Here it means the probability that you pay the challenge fee and never receive a payout, because you fail one of the evaluation phases or breach the funded account before your first withdrawal. It is calculated as one minus your chance of a payout across every phase chained together.
Why is a 2-step challenge so much harder than a 1-step?
Because the probabilities multiply. If you have an 85% chance to pass each phase, a 1-step gives you 85% to get funded, but a 2-step gives you 0.85 × 0.85 = 72%. Add the funded payout hurdle and the gap widens further. Two smaller targets in a row are usually harder than one larger target.
How is the ROI calculated?
The model estimates your chance of a payout, multiplies it by the cash you would collect on your first withdrawal (the payout target times your profit split, plus the fee back if it is refunded), and subtracts the fee you paid. Dividing that expected net figure by the fee gives the ROI.
Does a positive ROI mean I will make money?
No. It means the bet has positive expected value across many attempts. Any single challenge still ends in one of two ways: you get a payout or you lose the fee. A positive ROI tells you the odds and payoff are in your favour, not that this particular attempt will succeed.
Related calculators
Pass Probability Calculator
Monte Carlo simulation of your real odds of passing, respecting drawdown, daily loss, and the time limit. Not just profit factor.
Expectancy Calculator
Do you actually have an edge? Turns your win rate and average win/loss into expected value per trade, in R and dollars — the first question to answer before any other calculator here means anything.
Drawdown Calculator
Static vs trailing drawdown. See exactly where your account gets liquidated.
Djosa
Founder, QuantPropTraderI've been trading CFDs for about 18 months, and most of that was losing. What turned it around wasn't a better setup — it was measuring one simple strategy until the numbers stopped being an opinion: 20,000+ trades back-tested by script, ~2,000 by hand, and 500-1,000 forward-tested live. That's what makes a calculator like this useful instead of decorative, because it only works if the win rate and R:R you type in are numbers you've actually measured. I built these tools because the odds of passing a challenge are the one number nobody hands you before you pay for it.