How much can you make with a funded account?

Say you trade a $50,000 funded account at a 90% profit split, risking 1% per trade with a 45% win rate, 1.8R average win and 1R average loss. That is an expectancy of 0.45 × 1.8 − 0.55 × 1 ≈ +0.26R per trade, or about $130 per trade at 1% risk.

At three trades a day across 21 trading days a month, that is roughly 63 trades, or about $8,190 gross — around $7,370 a month after the 90% split, near $88,450 a year at that pace.

Run those same numbers through the simulator on an 8% trailing floor that locks at breakeven, and the chance of surviving a full month without a breach comes out around 79%. The risk-adjusted estimate is $7,370 × 0.79 ≈ $5,790 — a meaningfully more honest number than the headline figure alone.

Push it out to a year and the odds barely fall, to roughly 75%. That is not because the account is safe; it is because of where the risk actually sits. Almost all of it is spent in the early stretch, before the floor has climbed to your starting balance and stopped. Get through that and the floor is frozen at breakeven, every dollar above it is real cushion, and the account becomes hard to lose.

Switch the same simulation to a trailing floor that never locks and annual survival collapses toward zero, because an 8% trailing cushion is only 8R and across hundreds of trades a year even a good edge eventually gives back that much from a high. That gap is the single most important thing to know about funded futures accounts: the lock, not the edge, is what makes them survivable. Check which one your firm uses before trusting any annual figure.

It assumes your edge is constant and every trade is independent, and it risks a fixed dollar amount off the starting balance rather than compounding position size as the account grows or shrinks. Real trading has streaks and changing conditions that a constant win rate cannot capture.

It does not model firm-specific payout gates like a consistency rule, minimum trading days, or a first-payout threshold — use the payout calculator alongside this one for those. And it assumes the account is already funded: it says nothing about your odds of getting there in the first place, which is what the ROI & risk-of-ruin calculator is for.

The survival odds do model where a trailing floor stops rising, which matters more than almost anything else here — pick the drawdown type that matches your firm. What they do not model is intraday risk on a real-time trailing firm: the simulator moves your balance trade by trade, so a position that runs deep against you and comes back is invisible to it, while your firm would have counted the low.