Do you actually have an edge?
Turns your win rate and average win/loss into expected value per trade, in R and dollars — the first number to know before any other calculator on this site means anything.
Enter your numbers and press Calculate.
- Trades / month
- --
- Expectancy per trade ($)
- --
Expectancy per month
--
Why expectancy comes before everything else
Pass probability, payout, and earnings estimates all quietly assume you already know your edge. This is the calculator that answers the question underneath all of them: given your real win rate and your real average win and loss, do you actually have a positive expectancy — or does your system lose money on average, no matter how a good week feels?
How to use this calculator
Enter your win rate
The share of your trades that close profitable, from your own trading record — not the win rate you are aiming for.
Enter your average win and loss, in R
R is your risk per trade, treated as 1. A win of 1.8R paid 1.8 times what you risked; a loss of 1R cost exactly what you risked.
Enter your risk per trade and account size
These two only price 1R in dollars — they never change the R number itself, which is the honest, account-size-free verdict on your edge.
Press Calculate expectancy
It turns your edge into an expected value per trade, then multiplies by how often you trade for a monthly figure.
Understanding your results
- Expectancy per trade (R)
- Your win rate and average win/loss combined into one number: what you expect to make or lose, on average, per trade, in units of your own risk. Positive means the edge is real; negative means it loses money over enough trades no matter how it feels in the moment.
- Expectancy per trade ($)
- The R figure priced at your risk per trade and account size. Change either input and this number moves — the R figure above does not, because the edge itself has not changed.
- Trades / month
- Your trade frequency converted to a 21-trading-day month, so the monthly figures below are on the same footing regardless of whether you entered trades per day, week, or month.
- Expected per month
- Expectancy per trade times your trades per month, in both R and dollars. This is the number that answers "is this worth doing at all" before any other calculator on the site means anything.
A worked example
Say you win 45% of your trades, your average win is 1.8R and your average loss is 1R. Expectancy = 0.45 × 1.8 − 0.55 × 1 = 0.81 − 0.55 = +0.26R per trade. Risking 1% of a $50,000 account prices 1R at $500, so that is about +$130 per trade.
At three trades a day across a 21-trading-day month, that is 63 trades — roughly +16.4R, or about +$8,190 a month at this pace, before any losing streak or a change in conditions.
Now flip one input: same 45% win rate, but average win and loss both at 1R. Expectancy drops to 0.45 × 1 − 0.55 × 1 = −0.10R — a losing system despite winning nearly half the time, because the wins are no longer big enough to cover the losses. Run your own numbers above to see where your edge actually sits.
Where this calculator stops
It treats win rate and average win/loss as constants and every trade as independent — real trading has streaks, and edges drift as conditions change. The dollar figure also assumes a fixed risk amount off the starting balance, not a compounding position size.
It says nothing about whether you can survive the drawdown swings a real edge produces along the way, or whether a firm's rules let you collect on it — that is what the pass probability, drawdown, and earnings calculators are for. This one only answers whether the underlying edge is positive in the first place.
Frequently asked questions
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy is the average result you can expect from one trade, in units of what you risked (R). It combines your win rate with the size of your average win and average loss: expectancy = (win rate × avg win R) − (loss rate × avg loss R). A positive number means your edge makes money over enough trades; a negative number means it loses, regardless of how any single trade or week feels.
What is a good expectancy for a trading strategy?
Any expectancy above zero is a real edge — the size matters less than most traders assume, because it gets multiplied by how many trades you take. A modest +0.15R expectancy at 60 trades a month is a very different outcome than the same +0.15R at 6 trades a month. There is no universal "good" number; what matters is that it is positive and measured from real trades, not hoped for.
Why does a high win rate not guarantee positive expectancy?
Because win rate alone says nothing about size. A 70% win rate with 0.5R average wins and 2R average losses is negative expectancy (0.7 × 0.5 − 0.3 × 2 = −0.25R) despite winning most of the time — the losses are just big enough to erase every advantage the win rate provides. This calculator is built specifically to catch that.
How is expectancy different from win rate or risk/reward ratio alone?
Win rate and risk/reward (average win ÷ average loss) each describe only half the picture. Expectancy is the one number that combines both, which is why two strategies can share a win rate or a risk/reward ratio and still have completely different expectancies. It is the number that actually determines whether an edge is profitable.
Does this calculator account for trading costs or slippage?
No — it works from the win rate and R multiples you enter, which is where commissions and slippage should already be reflected if you are pulling these numbers from a real trading record. If you are estimating rather than measuring, build in a small haircut on your average win to stay honest.
Related calculators
Pass Probability Calculator
Monte Carlo simulation of your real odds of passing, respecting drawdown, daily loss, and the time limit. Not just profit factor.
ROI & Risk-of-Ruin Calculator
Is the challenge worth the fee? Chains 1-step and 2-step pass odds into your real chance of a payout, then the ROI on your fee.
Drawdown Calculator
Static vs trailing drawdown. See exactly where your account gets liquidated.
See every calculator
Expectancy is the first question. Pass probability, ROI, drawdown, and payout pick up from here.
Browse all calculatorsDjosa
Founder, QuantPropTraderI've been trading CFDs for about 18 months, and most of that was losing. What turned it around wasn't a better setup — it was measuring one simple strategy until the numbers stopped being an opinion: 20,000+ trades back-tested by script, ~2,000 by hand, and 500-1,000 forward-tested live. That's what makes a calculator like this useful instead of decorative, because it only works if the win rate and R:R you type in are numbers you've actually measured. I built these tools because the odds of passing a challenge are the one number nobody hands you before you pay for it.