Prop firm ROI calculator

Prop firm ROI calculator that chains every phase into your real chance of a payout, then prices that against the fee — the expected return, the ROI, and the odds you pay and never get paid at all. Enter your win rate, the firm's targets and drawdown, the fee and your split, or load the preset for FTMO, Topstep, Earn2Trade or The5ers. Free, no signup.

  • free
  • no signup
  • runs in your browser
Challenge type

How many evaluations you clear before the account is funded.

Firm rules and pricing as last checked September 2026 — always confirm against your own account before you trade.

Challenge rules
The payout
Your edge

Simulates 5,000 accounts per phase.

Will you get paid?
--%
chance of a payout
--%
risk of ruin (lose the fee)

Enter your numbers and press Calculate.

Where that fee number comes fromEvaluation cost calculator →

Pass phase 1
--%
Pass phase 2
--%
Reach first payout (funded)
--%
Trades to first payout
--
Is the fee worth it?
--%

Prop firm ROI is the odds you ever get paid, priced against the fee

Given your edge, what are the odds you ever see a payout, and is the fee worth it? The model simulates every phase, chains the results, and puts a dollar value on the outcome.

One input deserves care: the fee is not comparable across firms. On a $50,000 account FTMO's 2-Step is €345 once and refunded in full with your first payout; The5ers is $309 once, refunded from your third; Earn2Trade is $170 a month plus a one-time $139 and refunds neither, so four months there costs $819 and stays spent. If your firm bills monthly, price it in the evaluation cost calculator first and bring the total back here.

01

Each phase is simulated, not guessed

The same Monte Carlo that powers the prop firm challenge calculator runs 5,000 accounts through phase one, respecting your drawdown, daily loss and time limit. Then it does it again for phase two, and again for the funded account you are trying to reach a payout on.

02

The phases are chained

To get paid you must clear every step in a row. A 90% chance at phase one and a 90% chance at phase two is not a 90% chance overall, it is 0.9 × 0.9 = 81%. Reaching a payout multiplies in the same way, which is why 2-step challenges are harder than they look.

03

The money layer sits on top

Once the model knows your true chance of a payout, it weighs the cash you would collect (your first withdrawal times your profit split, plus your fee back if the firm refunds it) against the fee you pay up front. That gives the expected return and the ROI on the money you risk.

Risk of ruin is 49% when three 80% phases chain to 51%

Risk of ruin here is the chance you pay the fee and never receive a payout. Take a 2-step $50,000 challenge at $150, and suppose the simulation gives you an 80% chance at each of the three steps: phase one, phase two, and reaching a payout on the funded account.

Individually each one feels safe. Chained, they are 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.8 = 51%, so your risk of ruin is the other 49%.

It can still be a good bet. A 5% payout on $50,000 at a 90% split is $2,250, plus your $150 fee back, so the expected return is 0.51 × $2,400 ≈ $1,224 against $150 paid. Drop the win rate a few points and the chained probability, and the ROI with it, falls off a cliff — which is why a thin edge fails here even when a single phase looks winnable.

The prop firm ROI calculator models your first payout, not lifetime earnings

It answers “will I ever get paid, and is the fee worth it?”, not what a funded account earns over a year. It assumes your edge is the same in every phase and that trades are independent, which real trading is not.

It uses the rules and payout terms you enter, so a wrong split or an unmodeled consistency rule will move the answer. The drawdown type is the biggest lever of the lot: a floor that locks at breakeven and one that trails forever are very different bets, and most futures firms lock.

What it does not price is how many attempts you buy. For that, the evaluation cost calculator multiplies the fee by the resets your pass rate implies. Treat the ROI as a decision aid, not a promise of profit.

Related calculators

ROI needs three numbers this page takes on trust. The odds of passing at all: the prop firm challenge calculator. What the seat costs: the evaluation cost calculator. What a payout actually keeps: the payout calculator. If the return looks thin, the levers are risk per trade and the rule that caps an uneven month, the consistency rule.

01

Prop Firm Challenge Calculator

Monte Carlo simulation of your real odds of passing, respecting drawdown, daily loss and the time limit. Not just profit factor.

 02

Prop Firm Variance Calculator

Same edge, 1,000 accounts. See how many pass, how many breach on a bad streak first, and how deep the drawdown gets in between.

 03

Trading Expectancy Calculator

Do you have an edge? Turns your win rate and average win/loss into expected value per trade, in R and dollars.

Common risk-of-ruin and ROI questions

What is risk of ruin for a prop firm challenge?
Here it means the probability that you pay the challenge fee and never receive a payout, because you fail one of the evaluation phases or breach the funded account before your first withdrawal. It is calculated as one minus your chance of a payout across every phase chained together.
Why is a 2-step challenge so much harder than a 1-step?
Because the probabilities multiply. If you have an 85% chance to pass each phase, a 1-step gives you 85% to get funded, but a 2-step gives you 0.85 × 0.85 = 72%. Add the funded payout hurdle and the gap widens further. Two smaller targets in a row are usually harder than one larger target.
How is the ROI calculated?
The model estimates your chance of a payout, multiplies it by the cash you would collect on your first withdrawal (the payout target times your profit split, plus the fee back if it is refunded), and subtracts the fee you paid. Dividing that expected net figure by the fee gives the ROI.
Does a positive ROI mean I will make money?
No. It means the bet has positive expected value across many attempts. Any single challenge still ends in one of two ways: you get a payout or you lose the fee. A positive ROI tells you the odds and payoff are in your favor across many attempts, not that this one will succeed.